I think most people intuitively approach government economic data with at least a grain of skepticism. After all, government people have a vested interest in making us think the economy is humming along just fine.
"Rip it all down! Let Rome burn." Many are crying out for a Second American Civil War! I cannot see that tearing it to shreds and living in ashes is somehow better.
No economic forecast captures everyone’s prospects. At best, they can describe broad tendencies. And in large countries, ‘broad’ can hide a lot of variation.
With a record rise that amazing, this white-hot AI-driven ride makes the flaming melt-up for the dot-com bust during the internet-launching days of the early 2000s look like a mere bottle rocket.
The dollar amount of bad commercial real estate loans has ballooned beyond the loss reserves held by big banks to cover them as more and more borrowers struggle to keep up with payments.
Japan is an interesting case because of sustained ultra-loose policy even as other countries, like the US, have more recently undergone rate hikes to prevent runaway inflation.
An upsurge in Treasury issuances when the Fed is no longer the buyer of first resort struggled to find enough buyers in what became the worst 20YR Treasury auction on recent record.
