Technical Scoop: China Ace, Overbought Gold, Capital Flight

Clashes are looming between the Fed and the president. If it fully erupts, it's not good for markets. The ECB cut rates this past week. Canada stood pat. Trump wants the Fed to lower interest rates no matter what. A Fed/White House clash is not good for markets. 

The U.S./China trade war is escalating. Markets react negatively. China is still the world's manufacturing giant. But China has an ace up its sleeve - rare earths, and the U.S. needs them. Gold soars again and is now over $3,300. Gold has been the trade of the year, outpacing all the others. This benefits, for example, Aura Minerals Inc., a mid-tier gold and copper production company that pays a dividend and is held in the Enriched Capital Conservative Growth Strategy,* reported that it increased production, sales, and revenue, doubled EBITDA, and maintains below-average costs.  But overbought always means that a correction could happen anytime. Silver lagging continues to be a not good sign. Silver needs to take out $35 very soon.  

The debt remains a problem, and long interest rates remain sticky as interest payments rise. Evidence of capital flight out of the U.S. to primarily Europe. U.S. dollar falls, U.S. stock markets fall, but EU stock indices rose this past week. Capital flight and a falling U.S. dollar question the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. 

Technically, stock markets made the death cross this past week. We note a brief history of death crosses and what they mean. 

The scorecard since inauguration day shows gold remains comfortably in the lead. We'd say Bitcoin is as it led early on but it now appears to be fading. 

Not quite a full report this Easter weekend. Next week is the Canadian election. Huge protests continue in the U.S. Will they erupt?

We live in interesting times.

Have a great week!

DC

* Reference to the Enriched Capital Conservative Growth Strategy and its investments, celebrating a 7-year history of strong growth, is added by Margaret Samuel, President, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Enriched Investing Incorporated, who can be reached at 416-203-3028 or  msamuel@enrichedinvesting.com

“The economy of the future might be called the ‘spaceman economy,’ in which the earth has become a single spaceship, without unlimited reservoirs of anything.”

—Kenneth E. Boulding, English-born American economist, educator, peace activist, and interdisciplinary philosopher, author of two citation classics, The Image: Knowledge in Life and Society (1956) and Conflict and Defense: A General Theory (1962). Co-founder of the general systems theory and founder of numerous ongoing intellectual projects in economics and social science; 1910–1993

“Buy land. They ain't making any more of the stuff.”

—Will Rogers, American politician, writer, and newspaper publisher, Democratic U.S. representative from California from January 3, 1943 until May 23, 1944, minor career as an actor in Hollywood; 1911–1993

“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation, the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity; both bring permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”

—Ernest Hemingway, American novelist, short story writer, journalist, known for an economical, understated style that influenced later 20th-century writers, romanticized for his adventurous lifestyle and outspoken, blunt public image. Wrote seven novels, six short-story collections, and two non-fiction works. For Whom the Bell Tolls, A Farewell to Arms, and The Old Man and the Sea have become classics of American literature. Covered the Spanish Civil War, 1937; won the 1954 Nobel Prize for literature; 1899–1961

The Fed

Leave it to Fed Chair Jerome Powell to rain on Trump’s tariff party. Powell spoke on April 16, 2025, outlining the Fed’s thoughts on the current state of affairs. He was measured but respectful as he noted that the Fed needs more data on the economy’s direction before changing interest rates. But he also pointedly noted that the Trump administration’s tariff policies, along with other economic measures such as the role of DOGE in cutting government departments, risked pushing both inflation and employment from the Fed’s stated goals. While the Fed noted concern about the volatility that has erupted, he stressed it was not yet a sign of stress that warranted Fed action. The Fed’s inflation goal of 2% remains. It is the Fed’s goal to achieve maximum employment, maintain stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

So, it was probably no surprise that Trump erupted, saying that Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough.” That’s not a surprise, given Trump’s long animosity towards the Fed chair that he himself appointed in February 2018 during Trump’s first term. The Fed chair is chosen by the Fed’s governors and recommended for appointment by the president. The Fed chair must then be approved by the Senate. Jerome Powell was confirmed for another four-year term in 2022, expiring in 2026. The president may or may not have the authority to fire the Fed chair. It has never been challenged in court. No past Fed chair has ever been fired.

Trump wants lower interest rates. Powell takes a much more measured approach, relying on data to make decisions. Powell felt the inflationary impact from tariffs could be short-lived. Nonetheless, stagflation could become a problem. The Fed chair does not take instructions from the president. None of this was helped when the European Central Bank lowered interest rates to 2.25% as Trump’s tariffs were unleashing economic uncertainty and a potential global slowdown. It’s no surprise that the stock market has fallen since Trump took office on January 20, 2025, and bond yields have gone up. Inflation has also been moderating in the EU as it has been in the U.S. and Canada. Canada left their rates unchanged at the past week’s interest rate decision.

Nonetheless, expect a blow-up between Trump and Powell, including a court case that could go to the Supreme Court. A clash between Trump and Powell would be unsettling and could lead to the selling of U.S. treasuries and capital flight out of the U.S. It would also challenge the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world.

Central Bank Interest Rates – U.S., EU, Canada 2015–2025

Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, www.bls.gov, www.statcan.gc.ca, www.ec.europa.eu

China/U.S. Trade War

The question that has to be on everyone’s minds is, how does one invest in this environment? One could say it is “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma…” (Winston Churchill, October 1939.) It’s a phrase that has some bearing on the situation today. We have rapidly changing events that make it difficult to comprehend what might come next or when it might come. In other words, chaos! How does one invest when the narrative can change from one day to the next? As the world’s superpower, the U.S. is upending what it is supposed to stand for, which in turn is upending the established order of the world, both economically and politically.

As one pundit said, “The gloves are off. The world’s two largest economies are now in an open trade war.” (John Maudlin, Mauldin Economics [www.maudlineconomics.com], April 17, 2025.) Yes, there are side trade wars going on with the rest of the world, including Canada, but the U.S./China trade war is the main event. Add in Trump’s threats to annex the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada, and no wonder we have chaos. Trump says he will get deals with others, but none are yet forthcoming. Domestically, Trump is threatening judges, universities, immigrants (whether they are legal or not), and even U.S. states if they don’t do what Trump wants. A closer look reveals that Project 2025 (www.project2025.org) is gaining momentum and being brought in piece by piece.

Stock markets voted, and down they went. Gold voted, and up it went. The US$ Index vote,d and down it went. Bonds voted, too, but they were confused as to what to do with yields first falling and then rising; now they’re just trying to find out which way they should go. Oil prices also fell but are now rising as threats against Iran rise. The global world order has been upended. The world of 2024 no longer exists, and the final chapter has not yet been written.

This, in tur,n makes investing a minefield, but a golden one for those on the right side of this trade. 

Interestingly, the TSX gained 2.6% this past week while the junior TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX) was up 2.9%. Of the 14 sub-indices on the TSX, not one was down while Golds (TGD) made new all-time highs once again. In the U.S., three out of four of the major indices were down while the only one up was the Dow Jones Transportation (DJT), up a meagre 0.2%. A check of the foreign indices we follow reveals that all were up for the week. Is itto  sell the U.S., and buy Canada, the EU, and Asia? Bonds rallied on the week as yields fell, but the 2–10 spread widened marginally further, suggesting we are moving closer to an official recession. Bonds remain on a knife-edge. If a brawl broke out between Powell and Trump, bonds would sell off. If a constitutional crisis broke, bonds could also sell off. Only by ending the current chaos would bonds (and equities) rally.  

The main event is the U.S./China trade war.  For the moment at least, the others have faded a bit into the background, although they have not gone away. And it is not just trade as U.S. navy ships, including warships, plus ships from other countries prowl the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits. There have been close encounters that could have resulted in a military clash. The argument appears to centre on freedom of navigation as the waters are key trade routes.

China is the world’s manufacturing superpower. China’s share of global manufacturing (2023) is 28.9% vs. the U.S., next at 17.2%. The U.S. imports mainly consumer products from China, including electronics, smartphones, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. Sources for some of these products cannot be easily replaced. Nor can the U.S. build manufacturing plants quickly enough or find the people with experience to work in the factories. Average manufacturing salaries in the U.S. are around $54,000 vs. $13,000 to $15,000 in China. China imports mineral and fuel oils and a number of agricultural products such as grains, seeds, and fruits. They also import electric machinery, aircraft parts, nuclear reactors, optical and photographic goods, and plastics. For agricultural products, China, in particular, can easily pivot to other countries, thus putting considerable strain on U.S. farmers. Overall, most analysts believe that China can weather this trade war better than the U.S. China also holds some $784 billion of U.S. treasuries. The world holds $8.8 trillion of U.S. treasuries, representing roughly 24% of all U.S. federal debt outstanding of $36.7 trillion.

Source: www.statista.com

China’s Ace

We don’t know whether calling it China’s Ace is the right term, but the U.S. relies heavily on China’s rare earths. The U.S. putting tariffs on China’s goods has seen China retaliate by putting export controls on a number of rare earths that the U.S. needs, particularly for its military, but also for electronics and cars. China holds the world’s largest reserves of rare earths, even as that hold is diminishing over time as other sources are found. This need to expand supply and sources of rare earths drives the U.S.’s desire to annex Greenland and Canada and cut deals with Ukraine. Greenland, in particular, may have huge reserves of these rare earths.

As this chart shows, the U.S. received 70% of its rare earths from China in 2020–2023. The next largest is Brazil, but for only 13%. Canada would be included with the others. However, China’s share is slowing even as it holds the world’s largest reserves of rare earths and is, of course, the world’s largest producer. In Canada, Saskatchewan holds the largest reserves of rare earths in Canada. The U.S. does produce and has reserves of rare earths, but compared to China, its amounts are small.      

Companies listed in Canada that produce rare earths are Resouro Strategic Metals (RSM/V), Aclara Resources (ARA/To), and Commerce Resources (CCE/V). They are in various stages of exploration and production.

Source: www.statista.com

The Debt

Yes, the U.S. debt is huge. We’ve mentioned this many times before. Federal debt is $36.7 trillion, 123% of GDP, by far the largest in the world. State and municipal debt totals $3.2 trillion, while household/corporate debt totals $63.3 trillion, of which $1.3 trillion is credit card debt. Overall, that’s $103.2 trillion, almost 33% of all the world’s debt. As we’ve said before, U.S. debt is on an unsustainable path. The U.S depends on the rest of the world to finance its debt. As we’ve noted, foreigners hold $8.8 trillion of all U.S. federal debt. The U.S. needs to refinance $9 trillion in 2025 and $28 trillion up to 2029. Plus, that doesn’t include the annual budget deficit, currently $2 trillion/annually. By 2029, it is estimated that U.S. federal debt could rise to $46.5 trillion, up $9.8 trillion over the next four years. At the current rate, it could be even higher. Who’s going to buy it when the U.S. is in an economic war with the rest of the world? Nonetheless, the bigger problem is that the U.S. debt is so large that the creditors are the ones who have an even bigger problem.

Rumours are already floating that the U.S. could face another credit downgrade. The U.S. is currently at AA+, having lost its coveted AAA rating in 2011 in the midst of debt limit wars. The U.S. is already paying $1.0 trillion for interest on its debt, a good 14% of the U.S. budget. Add in its largest budget items of Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, and defense, and you have 71% of official spending. Hence, the a huge desire to see lower interest rates.

As well, there is the ongoing attack on Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid by DOGE to slash expenses. There is also the small matter of unfunded liabilities. These unfunded liabilities, consisting primarily of Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid, are the difference between government commitments and its ability to fund them. Currently, unfunded liabilities are in excess of $100 trillion but could reach $300 trillion by 2029. Hence, the current attacks on Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. It’s an astronomical amount that could bankrupt the U.S. or at least turn it into an Argentina. The desire is to monetize the debt or, as some have suggested, back the U.S. debt with gold. If they did that, today’s gold price would seem low.

U.S. Debt 2000–2005

Source: www.stlouisfed.org

Plunging Tourism

This is a chart we found showing how tourism to the U.S. is plunging. Some 18 million jobs depend on the tourism industry as tourism contributes $2.36 trillion to the U.S. GDP. It includes both domestic and international tourism. International tourism contributes roughly $226 billion. A 10% drop in tourists from Canada alone could cost $2.1 billion and 14,000 jobs. Longer checks at the border, coupled with stories that some are denied entry or worse, put up a big precaution sign. Many have no issue crossing the border, although some are more likely to be detained than others. It depends. Regardless, it is another sign of an impending recession.

Source: www.trade.gov, www.crescat.com

Capital Flight

Foreigners own a lot of U.S. financial assets. They own some $31.9 trillion of U.S. financial assets, including $18.5 trillion of equities, $8.8 trillion of U.S. treasuries (including $7.2 trillion of bonds), and $4.6 trillion of corporate credit. Finding a precise amount that has fled the U.S., of which Swiss banks have been a primary receiver, is not yet available. We have read of sums of $30, $40, and $50 million being transferred to Swiss Banks. Overall, it may already be in the billions. Wealthy investors fear tax increases, political instability, and even fear they might be targeted by the government. The U.S. is the world’s reserve currency. The U.S. buys the goods, and everyone else puts their money in the U.S. stock market or bond market. Capital flight questions the reserve status of the U.S. dollar. As well, it puts downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Source: www.federalreserve.gov, www.econovis.net

Not only do foreigners hold a lot of U.S. equities, but they also hold a lot of bonds: as noted, some $8.8 trillion. However, many others also own U.S. debt. Of public holders, mutual funds have $7.7 trillion, depository institutions $1.6 trillion, state and local governments $1.7 trillion, pension funds $1.0 trillion, insurance companies $480 billion, and savings bond holders $5.7 trillion. The Federal Reserve holds $5.2 trillion while intergovernmental agencies (i.e., Social Security) hold $7.0 trillion. While most are not vulnerable to a sell-off, foreigners may be the most likely to unload U.S. treasuries and repatriate the funds. Others, like the Federal Reserve and intragovernmental agencies, are the least likely. What’s key now is the central banks and what they might do. Will they sell? Thanks, Mike, for the charts.

Source: www.visualcapitalist.com, www.home.treasury.gov, www.pgpf.com

Normally, when U.S. stock markets fall as they did in 2008 and 2020, the US$ Index rises and bond yields fall. Not this time. And that in turn puts potentially further downward pressure on stocks, bonds, and the US$ Index.

Update

S&P 500

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Are we now entering a deadly bear market? This past week, the S&P 500 made the death cross, a technical indicator that occurs when the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA. Its opposite is the golden cross. The indicator has a very good track record of signaling either a bear or bull market. It tends to be a lagging indicator, meaning that it usually occurs after the markets are signalling it could be entering a bear or bull market.

And it is not foolproof, as there are instances that have occurred where it whipsaws. As an example, in the 2007–2009 bear market that resulted from the global financial crisis, the death cross was seen in January 2008. The golden cross, signalling the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market, occurred in July 2009. But here’s the rub. In July 2010, the death cross was seen again. But it whipsawed, and in October 201,0 the golden cross was made. The next death cross was seen in September 2015, but it too was followed quickly by a golden cross in April 2016. The next death cross was December 2018, followed by a golden cross in April 2019. The pandemic brought us our next one with a death cross in April 2020 and a golden cross in July 2020. In March 2022, we got a death cross followed by a golden cross in February 2023.

Overall, from 2008 to 2025, death crosses lasted 8.4 months while golden crosses lasted 27.4 months. From 2009 until now, we have been through a lengthy bull market with periodic pullbacks in 2010, 2015/2016, 2018/2019, 2020, and 2022/2023. Ergo, why death crosses are followed quickly by golden crosses.  So is this just another pullback within the context of a long bull market? Or is this a bear market ala 2008?

We then turn to key lows to give us further clues about the market. We have now taken out the last weekly low seen in August 2024. For the monthly low, it is also August 202,4, where the low of 5,120 has already been exceeded. A break of the monthly low indicates a more serious bear market unfolding. But a more important low is now close by, and that is the yearly low. The 2024 low was 4,682. The market’s low to date in 2025 was 4,835. In many respects, the monthly and yearly lows are confirmations of a bear market (or bull, if we are going up). The potential this time around is for a more serious bear market, at least like the 2008–2009 bear that lasted 18 months. One that is that long today would take us to October 2026.

Most of all, the major indices have formed the death cross, except for the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) and the TSX Composite. A corrective market is defined as a 10% correction. A bear market is defined as a decline of 20% or more. By that definition, the S&P 500 has already entered a bear market, given the recent low was down 21.3%. The S&P 500 is currently down 14% from the February 2025 all-time high. What we don’t know is how deep this bear will go. It could be shallow like the 2020 pandemic bear that fell 33.9%, sharp but short-lived, or it could be like the 2008 bear that fell 56.8% but lasted well over a year. For the record, the 2022 bear fell only 25.4% but lasted most of the year.

As we noted earlier, there appears to be capital flight occurring this time around as wealthy investors are voting with their money by taking it out of the country. The prime place is Switzerland. It is occurring for both equities and bonds. What we haven’t yet seen to any great extent is the selling of U.S. treasuries from other central banks. But the bond market, despite the recent rebound, is weak, and nervousness about the state of affairs in the U.S. is of concern. There is even concern that the U.S. could bring in capital controls to stem the flow of funds out of the country. Capital controls are not unusual in times of financial stress. But they cause their own problems.

Signs that funds are flowing out are seen with the U.S. stock markets falling this past week, while the European and Asian exchanges rose. This past week, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) dropped 2.7% thanks to United Healthcare, the Dow Jones Transportations (DJT) bucked the trend, gaining a meagre 0.2%, while the NASDAQ fell 2.6%. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index was also up a meagre 0.3%, but the NY FANG Index, dominated by the MAG7, fell 3.5%. Surprisingly, the mid and small cap markets did okay with the S&P 400 (Mid) up 0.8% and the S&P 600 (Small) up 0.9%. Are the mid and small leading?

However, in Canada, the TSX Composite rose 2.6% while the small-cap TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX) rose 2.9%. In the EU, the London FTSE was up 3.9%, the Paris CAC 40 was up 2.6%, the German DAX was up 4.1%, and the EuroNext was up 4.1% as well. In Asia, China’s Shanghai Index (SSEC) rose 1.3%, the Tokyo Nikkei Dow (TKN) gained 2.4%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) was up 2.3%. U.S. down, Europe and Asia up. Capital flight? We note all this to show the possibility that the U.S. is experiencing capital flight as result of the chaos and uncertainty the Trump administration is creating with tariffs and even threats against democracy itself, as seen by clashes/attacks on the judiciary and governors of states who are unwilling to comply with or are bucking the requests of the Trump administration. Lawsuits are everywhere, and a potential constitutional crisis looms.

The U.S. has experienced constitutional crises in the past, notably the secession crisis of 1860–1861, leading to the Civil War of 1861–1865. Since then, there have been a few others, with the most recent one being the Watergate Crisis of 1972–1974, leading to the resignation of President Richard Nixon. Could another one occur that might bring in the Insurrection Act? It’s not that it hasn’t happened before. The most recent was the segregation riots of the 1960s. The last insurrection was the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, but the Act was never used for that event. Given the current ongoing protests with huge turnouts, could the Insurrection Act be imposed to bring them into line?

Despite the recent rebound in the markets, this bear is most likely nowhere near completion. The most recent low was 4,835, and if that falls, the next wave down would be underway. The most recent decline from the high in February unfolded in an ABC fashion. That would complete the A wave of a larger decline. Currently, we are in the B wave, but we don’t know how long it may last. If this is really a five-wave decline, then the current up wave is the fourth wave, with the fifth wave still to come. That would signal the start of a primary bear market. Now is not the time to buy the dips, but instead sell rallies.

The Scorecard

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Here’s our scorecard. We’ve changed the date from November 5, 2024, the date of the election, to January 20, 2025, the date of the inauguration and official start of the Trump presidency. The only other change we’ve made is to add the Euro Stoxx 50 ETF to represent the EU market. Not surprisingly, gold remains the best performer since January 20, up 23.2%. Next is the Euro Stoxx ETF, up 6.9% and rising. This is the one that may be reflecting the flight of capital from the U.S. to Europe. For bonds, as represented by the iShares 20-year treasury bond, the gain is a small 1.4% so far. All others are down: S&P 500 down 11.9%, the US$ Index down 9.1%, WTI oil off 16.4%, the MSCI Momentum Stocks down 9.9%, and the best-performing one, iShares Emerging Markets down 0.4%. For the record, the TSX is down 3.5%, highlighting Canada’s outperformance.

Gold

Source: www.stockcharts.com

The prime beneficiary of the current market chaos has been gold. Or, as we say, gold is protection against geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and loss of faith in government. It is also protection against currency devaluation. Right now, we have all four in play. Inflation/deflation are merely side issues as both are contributors to economic uncertainty. From that standpoint, it is no surprise that gold is up 26% in 2025, consistently making new all-time highs. Not only has gold regularly been making nominal new all-time highs, but it is now equaling the inflation-adjusted high of January 1980. That high is now at $3,395, with the high this past week at $3,356.

On the week, gold gained 2.9%. However, our big bugaboo is the gross underperformance of silver. Usually, in both bull and bear markets, silver leads. This past week, silver gained only 1.0% and is up 11.2% in 2025, badly lagging gold. There are a number of reasons for this, but one appears to be suppression in order to keep silver prices lower, given its extensive use as an industrial metal, with the monetary aspects pushed aside. The gold stocks remain ultra-cheap with the gold/HUI ratio last at 8.3. The all-time high was 10.9. It needs to first break under 8, then under 6.5, to suggest to us that we are breaking down, and gold stocks would outpace gold itself. The all-time low was 1.55 made way back in 2004.

Nonetheless, the gold stocks have done well in 2025. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) gained 2.4% and is up 45.0% in 2025 as it made new 52-week highs. The TSX Gold Index (TGD) has been even better, up 1.7% this past week and up 45.7% in 2025 to record highs, taking out the high of 2011 on a nominal basis. Inflation-wise, the TGD still has a way to go, needing to exceed 625 vs. the current high of 497.

For the record, this past week platinum was up 2.8% but only 5.9% on the year, a distinct laggard. Near precious metals are palladium, up 5.8% this past week, and copper, up 4.0%. Copper made all-time highs earlier and remains a key metal going forward in 2025. Copper is up 16.6% in 2025. A quick mention of energy: WTI oil rose this week by 4.8%, but it remains well shy of breaking out above $72. Brent crude was up 4.5%. Both remain in bear markets and down on the year. Natural gas (NG) at the Henry Hub was down 8.5%, but EU NG at the Dutch Hub gained 5.2%. Energy stocks benefited as the ARCA Oil & Gas Index (XOI) was up 3.1% and the TSX Energy Index (TEN) gained 5.2%. Both, however, remain down on the year.

Is gold entering a runaway move to the upside? It is possible. We’ve achieved our next targets at $3,350, but are higher highs coming? We are a bit overbought, but that condition can remain in a strong bull market. Next targets could go up to $3,600, which is our current target. Many are predicting even higher. A breakdown right now would not occur until under $3,000. For the gold stocks, concern rises if the TGD falls under 450 but breaks down under 400. Otherwise, we are in a potentially powerful bull that hasn’t been seen since the 1979 run-up. Even the run-up in 2011 was not as frenetic as this one. But the background favourable to gold is here in spades.

At this stage, we are not even sure what might end it. The U.S. backing off on tariffs would end it. Resolution of wars, particularly the Russia/Ukraine war, would help. And the end of confrontations due to extreme polarization in the U.S. and elsewhere would also help end it. The trouble is, we don’t see any of that happening at this time. We live in chaotic, volatile times, and, as we noted, the world of 2024 is over. Gold is the beneficiary.

Markets & Trends

			% Gains (Losses)                              Trends
	Close Dec 31/24	Close Apr 18/25	Week	YTD	Daily (Short Term)	Weekly (Intermediate)		Monthly (Long Term)
ne
S&P 500	5,881.63	5,282.70	(1.5)%	(10.2)%	down	down		up
Dow Jones Industrials	42,544.22	39,142.43	(2.7)%	(8.0)%	down	down		up
Dow Jones Transport	16,030.66	13,438.72	0.2%	(15.5)%	down	down		down
NASDAQ	19,310.79	16,286.45	(2.6)%	(15.7)%	down	down		up (weak)
S&P/TSX Composite	24,796.40	24,192.81	2.6%	(2.2)%	down	neutral		up
S&P/TSX Venture (CDNX)	597.87	633.83	2.9%	6.0%	up	up		neutral
S&P 600 (small)	1,408.17	1,174.88	0.9%	(16.6)%	down	down		down (weak)
MSCI World	2,304.50	2,417.90	4.3%	4.9%	neutral	neutral		up
Bitcoin	93,467.13	84,661.67	1.1%	(9.4)%	up (weak)	neutral		up
Gold Mining Stock Indices
Gold Bugs Index (HUI)	275.58	399.62 (new highs)	2.4%	45.0%	up	up		up
TSX Gold Index (TGD)	336.87	490.89 (new highs) *	1.7%	45.7%	up	up		up
%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield	4.58%	4.33%	(3.6)%	(5.5)%
Cdn. 10-Year Bond CGB yield	3.25%	3.14%	(4.3)%	(3.4)%
Recession Watch Spreads
U.S. 2-year 10-year Treasury spread	0.33%	0.52%	2.0%	57.6%
Cdn 2-year 10-year CGB spread	0.30%	0.62%	5.1%	106.7%
Currencies
US$ Index	108.44	99.42	(0.5)%	(8.3)%	down	down		down
Canadian $	69.49	.7228	0.4%	4.0%	up	up (weak)		down
Euro	103.54	113.68 (new highs)	0.2%	9.8%	up	up		up
Swiss Franc	110.16	122.03	(0.6)%	10.8%	up	up		up
British Pound	125.11	132.62	1.4%	6.0%	up	up		up
Japanese Yen	63.57	70.21	0.9%	10.5%	up	up		neutral
Precious Metals
Gold	2,641.00	3,326.27 (new highs) *	2.9%	26.0%	up	up		up
Silver	29.24	32.51	1.0%	11.2%	neutral	neutral		up
Platinum	910.50	964.00	2.8%	9.4%	neutral	neutral		neutral
Base Metals
Palladium	909.80	943.00	5.8%	3.7%	neutral	down (weak)		down
Copper	4.03	4.70	4.0%	16.6%	neutral	up		up
Energy
WTI Oil	71.72	64.45	4.8%	(10.1)%	down	down		down
Nat Gas	3.63	3.25	(8.5)%	(10.5)%	down	neutral		neutral

Source: www.stockcharts.com

* New All-Time Highs

Note: For an explanation of the trends, see the glossary at the end of this article.

New highs/lows refer to new 52-week highs/lows and, in some cases, all-time highs.

GLOSSARY

Trends

Daily – Short-term trend (For swing traders)

Weekly – Intermediate-term trend (For long-term trend followers)

Monthly – Long-term secular trend (For long-term trend followers)

Up – The trend is up.

Down – The trend is down

Neutral – Indicators are mostly neutral. A trend change might be in the offing.

Weak – The trend is still up or down but it is weakening. It is also a sign that the trend might change.

Topping – Indicators are suggesting that while the trend remains up there are considerable signs that suggest that the market is topping.

Bottoming – Indicators are suggesting that while the trend is down there are considerable signs that suggest that the market is bottoming.

Disclaimer

David Chapman is not a registered advisory service and is not an exempt market dealer (EMD) nor a licensed financial advisor. He does not and cannot give individualised market advice. David Chapman has worked in the financial industry for over 40 years including large financial corporations, banks, and investment dealers.  The information in this newsletter is intended only for informational and educational purposes. It should not be construed as an offer, a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security.  Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information. However, we cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. We make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of this commentary and expressly disclaim liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this commentary.  David Chapman will always use his best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of all information. The reader assumes all risk when trading in securities and David Chapman advises consulting a licensed professional financial advisor or portfolio manager such as Enriched Investing Incorporated before proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. David Chapman may own shares in companies mentioned in this newsletter. Before making an investment, prospective investors should review each security’s offering documents which summarize the objectives, fees, expenses and associated risks.  David Chapman shares his ideas and opinions for informational and educational purposes only and expects the reader to perform due diligence before considering a position in any security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor such as Enriched Investing Incorporated.   Performance is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.