Asian Metals Market Update: "significant declines in inflation"

• Spot Gold has a key short term support at fifty day moving average around $1853.10.
• Spot silver has to trade over one hundred day moving average of $21.70 to be in a short term bullish zone.
• I am against selling gold and silver at current price.

Powell said 2023 should be a year of "significant declines in inflation.". This implies that all the debate on interest rate hike and interest rate cuts are useless. Be short term oriented. Hold on to your long term investment in precious metals, base metals and energies. Global growth will rise with passing of each quarter. Greenback will nosedive in the second half of the year.

In my view

• Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in October to December quarter.
• Pause in interest rates will be there between March and May meeting.
• I do not expect Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June meeting unless energy price and food price zooms.
• US Dollar will slide very fast in the six months between June and December this year.
• ( E ) Asian currencies will gain against the greenback. Energy price zooming and breaking past last year high is the only risk to gain in Asian currencies this year.
• Gold and silver will zoom and reach new historical highs after March FOMC meeting on 22^nd March as incremental interest rate hikes will be less and less in every successive FOMC meetings.
• Copper and industrial metals should reach historical high between July and October this year as the world nears interest rate cut.

It will be a technical trade today and tomorrow. Crash or sell off will be there if spot gold does not break $1905 by 15^th February/Wednesday. One should use all the price crash in spot silver till the end of February with a trailing stop loss below $20.00 for end April.

Spot Gold

• Daily support: $1844.30 and $1859.00
• Daily resistance: $1886.10, $1901.60 and $1916.070
• Gold has to trade over 1855-$1860 zone to rise to $1901.60 and $1930.20.
• Crash/sell off in spot gold will be there only if it trades below $1855-$1860 zone.

Spot Silver:

• Daily Support: $21.40 and $21.80
• Daily Resistance: $22.50 and $23.02
• Spot silver has to trade over $21.40 to rise to $23.00 and $23.78.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if spot silver trades below $21.40.

COMEX GOLD APRIL 2023

• Key price to watch: $1855.20 and $1870.80
• Gold has to trade over $1870.80 to rise to $1914.40 and $1930.10.
• Mild sell off will be there if gold trades below $1870.80 to $1855.20 and more.
• Gold will rise very quickly if it trades over $1898.00 after London opens.

COMEX SILVER MARCH 2023

• Key price to watch $2179.00 and $2255.00
• Silver has to trade over $2200.00 to rise to $2297 and $277.
• Mild sell off will be there if silver trades below initial support of $2200.00

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (March 2023) 

• Crude oil has to trade over $75.40 to rise to $80.90.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if crude oil trades below $75.40.

COMEX COPPER MARCH 2023

• Copper has to trade over $397.70 to rise to $418.30 and $428.70.
• Copper will crash only if it trades below $397.70 after London opens to $393.70 and $372.70.

If LME copper spot does not fall below $8700 till 15^th February, then chance of a short squeeze will be very high.

Key US economic data releases this week and till 17^th February 2023

• 14th February: Consumer Price Index/CPI January.
• 15^th February: Retail Sale (January)
• 16^th February. Producer Price Index/PPI January.