USD:
Analysis:
Within our bearish wave b triangle, we completed wave -a- at 107.05, wave -b- at 100.31, wave -c- at 106.38, and it looks like wave -d- may still be underway, although it cannot fall much further.
After wave -d- ends we still expect to move higher again in wave -e-, which cannot exceed the wave -c- high of 106.38, for the current triangle formation to still be valid.
After wave -e- and our bearish wave b triangle ends, we expect a sharp drop lower in wave c. We will update our projected endpoint for wave c, after wave b ends.
In our last Weekly Post, we provided a very bearish alternate count for the USDX, that we will adopt if our current wave b bearish triangle option gets eliminated, with a trade below the 100.31 low!
Note that a dollar sell-off fits perfectly… with our higher price targets for gold!
Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 107.10.
Active Positions: Short risking to 107.10!
Interest Rates:
Analysis:
An imminent collapse in rates, which we are projecting, would accompany a meltdown in growth and perhaps in the stock market too! Gold should soar due to the huge loss of confidence! Here’s our current take on the matter:
The US 10-year Bond Yield has completed wave i at the 5.021% high and we are correcting that 5-wave impulsive sequence within wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 2.698%;
61.8% = 2.155%.
We are still a bit short of our second projected endpoint for the completion of wave !iii!, so we could see still added weakness before it ends.
It also looks like wave !iii! has not completed a 5-wave impulsive sequence at the 3.669% low.
After wave !iii! ends we expect a wave !iv! rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave !iii! drop.
Lower rates are very positive for gold.
Active Positions: Short risking to 5.050%!
Gold:
We continue to rally in wave .v.. Within wave .v., we completed wave ^i^ of *i* at the 1997.20 high and all of wave ^ii^ at the 1931.80.
If that is the case then we are starting to rally in wave ^iii^, which has a new updated projected endpoint of:
^iii^ = 6.25^i^ = 3101.20!
Wave ^iii^ is subdividing with wave $i$ ending at 2151.20 and wave $ii$ at the 1973.10 low. We are rallying in a subdividing wave $iii$ with wave !i! ending at 2088.50, wave !ii! at 1984.30, wave !iii! at the 2431.50 high, and our wave !iv! bullish triangle at the 2277.60 low.
We are thrusting higher in wave !v!, which has the following last projected endpoint:
!v! = 1.618(2431.50-1973.10) = 3035.50.
We still expect higher prices with a new all-time high likely this coming week, or soon after that.
Our updated projected target for the end of wave -iii- is:
-iii- = 6.25-i- = 3199.90!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
Email: admin@captainewave.com
Website: www.captainewave.com
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