Has the dollar topped out? The Captain feels his wave counts show that it has, and he has shorted it in the futures market.
We continue to work on a very large wave B bearish triangle and within that triangle all of wave ^c^ ended at the 114.75 high. We are now falling in wave ^d^. Wave ^d^ cannot fall below the wave ^b^ low of 71.46 for this triangle formation to remain valid. Wave ^d^ needs to consist of at least one abc pattern but can have up to 3 such patterns.
Within wave ^d^, wave a ended at 100.68 and within wave b, wave -a- ended at 107.05, wave -b- at 99.86, and we are now working on the assumption that all of wave -c- is complete at the 110.02 high. If that is the case, then we should be starting to move sharply lower in wave c of ^d^.
Within wave c, we completed wave -i- at 106.78 and wave -ii- at 109.75, and we should now be falling in wave -iii-. Within wave -iii-, we completed wave $i$ ended at 107.15 and all of wave $ii$ at 108.42. We should now be moving sharply lower in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint as noted in our Daily Morning Posts.
This count is incredibly supportive of our gold/GDX/gold stock and silver counts.
Active Positions: Short, risking to 110.10!
Gold Market Update
What about gold? If the dollar is set to fall, is gold set to surge? Well, we are long gold in size. Enough said!
What follows is a detailed wave count view of the gold market wave counts, basis the weekly chart. It can be confusing, but note our overall commitment to gold and excitement about it! Here are the Ewave counts:
Our very large wave .iv. the bullish triangle pattern is complete at the 1810.10 low, and we continue to thrust higher in wave .v. of -iii-.
Within wave .v., wave *i* ended at the 1997.20 high and all of wave *ii* ended at the 1929.50 low. We are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has aa final projected endpoint of:
*iii* = 6.250*i* = 3042.30.
Within wave *iii*, wave ^i^ ended at 2151.00, and wave ^ii^ at 1923.50. We are now rallying in wave ^iii^, which could be heading to our next projected endpoint of:
^iii^ = 4.236^i^ = 2936.80.
Within wave ^iii^, wave !i! ended at 2088.50, wave !ii! at 1984.30, wave !iii! at 2431.50, and our wave !iv! bullish triangle formation at the 2293.80 low. We are now rallying in a subdividing wave !v!, with wave $i$ ending at 2483.80, wave $ii$ at 2353.20, and wave $iii$ at 2790.40.
Our wave $iv$ bullish triangle is complete and if that is the case then we are continuing to thrust higher in wave $v$.
Our current projected endpoint for the end of wave -iii- is:
-iii- = 6.25-i- = 3199.90!
Trading Recommendation: Go long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as our stops!
Thank you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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