USD: Key Wave Counts
Analysis:
All of wave (iii) is complete at the 4.333% high and we are working on a complex wave (iv) correction, which has the following retracement levels:
23.6% = 3.426%;
38.2% = 2.870%.
We are also now watching for the possibility that wave (iv) could become a bullish triangle that started at the wave (iii) high of 4.330%.
Our current plan is to go long at the end of wave (iv).
We are also watching another alternate count that is suggesting that all of wave (iv) ended at the 3.253% level and that we are now rallying in wave (v) of i.
If this market is following this count then US rates have been peaked for now and a retracement of between 50 to 61.8% of the entire move from 0.398% to 4.366% is about to begin!
Trading Recommendation: Stay Flat (no position).
Active Positions: Flat!
Oil:
Analysis:
Wave ii is complete at the 63.57 low and that we have started to rally higher in wave iii. Within wave iii we are rallying in wave i and within wave i, we have now completed wave (iv) at the 77.59 low and are now rallying in wave (v).
Wave (v) and all of wave i could continue to rally all the way to the next major resistance line which is the 93.64/93.74 area, before both of these waves end.
But they could also now be complete at the 92.43 high!
We expect wave ii should correct between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.
In the longer term our initial projected endpoint for the end of wave iii is almost surreal and implies massive inflation and civil unrest are almost certain to happen:
iii = 1.618i = 264.20!
Trading Recommendation: Go long crude with a put as a stop. Go long Suncor.
Active Positions: Long crude with puts as a stop! Long Suncor!
Gold:
Analysis:
Wave *d* ended at the 2080.70 spike high and we are now falling in wave *e*. We do not know which internal wave pattern wave *e* will become but for the moment will assume that is it is a simple 3 wave pattern.
The Good News: We are working on the assumption that all of wave ^c^ is complete at the 1884.90 low and that we have started to rally higher in wave .v. of -iii-.
Gold is also now breaking above the major downtrend line connecting 2080.70, 1987.60 and 1953.00, which is suggesting that we are going to be moving sharply higher from here!
Our current projected target for the end of wave -iii- is also significant:
-iii- = 4.236-i- = 2531.10!
Trading Recommendation: Go Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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