Gold, USD, & Rates: Key Wave Counts
USD:
Analysis:
We continue to work on a very large wave B bearish triangle and within that triangle all of wave ^c^ ended at the 114.75 high. We are now falling in wave ^d^. Wave ^d^ cannot fall below the wave ^b^ low of 71.46 for this triangle formation to remain valid. Wave ^d^ needs to consist of at least one abc pattern but can have up to 3 such patterns.
Within wave ^d^, we have now adopted our alternate count, which suggests that wave a ended at 100.68 and wave b at 107.05. We should now be falling in a subdividing wave c.
Within wave c, we completed wave -i- at 100.31 and wave -ii- at 106.38 and we are now falling in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of: -iii- = 1.618-i- = 95.37
Our current projection for the of wave c of ^d^ is way down on the chart at: C = 1.618a = 84.28
This count is incredibly supportive of our gold/GDX/gold stock and silver counts.
Trading Recommendation: Go short. Use a stop at 107.10
Active Positions: Short, risking to 107.10!
Oil:
Analysis:
Wave ii has become more complex as shown on our Weekly Crude Chart and is NOT complete at the 63.57 low.
Within wave ii, wave (a) ended at the 63.57 low. It looks like wave (b) has become a bearish triangle formation is now complete at the 80.16 high.
If that is the case, then we are now falling in a subdividing wave (c), which has a minimum target of the wave (a) of 63.57.
Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:
50% = 68.50.
61.8% = 53.87.
In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following stunning upside projections:
C = A = 153.77;
C = 1.618A = 244.78.
Trading Recommendation: Go long crude. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as our stop!
Gold:
We are thrusting higher in wave !v!, which has the following last projected endpoint:
!v! = 1.618(2431.50-1973.10) = 3035.50.
Within wave !v!, it looks like we completed wave @i@ of !v! at the 2483.70 high and wave @ii@ at the 2353.20 low, so we have been rallying in wave @iii@, which has an initial projected endpoint of:
@iii@ = 1.618@i@ = 2660.50.
We have now reached our current projected endpoint for wave @iii@ and need to be on guard for its completion and the start of our wave @iv@ drop.
(The other option is that wave @iii@ is going to extend higher.)
We expect that wave @iv@ should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave @iii@ rally.
Our updated projected target for the end of wave -iii- is:
-iii- = 6.25-i- = 3199.90!
We still expect higher prices as wave @iii@ continues to develop.
Trading Recommendation: Go long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long gold futures (from $1080!), with puts as our stop!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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