The first trading week of the second quarter of the year will have some unexpected surprises. Traders make a mountain out of a mole when there is no news. Equity markets and bond markets are not affected by Ukraine war news due to the lack of extreme developments. One needs to look at the situation beyond Ukraine. Russia has failed. It seems to be looking at ways for an honourable exit. Ukraine’s situation will not get worse or worst unless Russia uses its long-range missiles.
Make trading simple and trade in the technical only. Ignore the news unless nuclear war risk resurfaces in Ukraine. One should also ignore the statements by Western politicians.
Biden will release crude oil this year from America’s strategic oil reserves. Venezuela and Iran are not allowed to sell crude oil freely. Crude oil prices would have crashed and traded below $60 if Iran and Venezuela were allowed to sell freely. Biden is just trying to get political mileage (before the US Senate elections in November) by selling crude oil from USA’s strategic reserve. WTI crude oil is just below $100 after the announcement. The big question is whether WTI crude oil falls below $80 and remains below $80 this summer. Hedge funds are just bullish on crude oil. Crude oil demand in the northern hemisphere is also very bullish till October.
COMEX SILVER MAY 2022 (current market price $2472.30)
- Weekly Support: $2292.60, $2359.40 and $2408.60.
- Weekly Resistances: $2506.80, $2571.40 and $2686.80.
- Bullish View: Silver has to trade over $2423.90 to rise to $2640.90.
- Bearish trend or silver will crash in case it trades below $2423.90 in USA session any day from Tuesday.
WTI CRUDE OIL current contract 2022 (current market price $99.33)
- Weekly Support: $84.10, $87.70, $91.60 and $95.60.
- Weekly Resistances: $102.80, $106.80 and $114.40
- Crude oil will try to rise to $121.30 as long as it trades over $87-$90 zone.
- For a bearish trend crude oil needs a daily close below $87 for ten consecutive trading sessions.
- Short term traders have to be careful as demand side fundamentals are bullish.
Not just this week, April month itself will be a transition month for the rest of the year. Abrupt price moves without any news can be there any moment. Physical demand is very high in precious metals and industrial metals. I expect higher demand to continue in April month as well. Just look for supply news.
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