HAVE GOLD AND SILVER FORMED A SHORT TERM TOP? WILL COPPER, ZINC AND BASE METALS FORM A MEDIUM TERM BOTTOM?
Silver, Copper, Zinc, and Aluminum crashed this week. Gold had a correction but was unable to break $2100 expectation. Jobs, Central banks meeting and inflation numbers are all over now. Banking crisis fears continues this week too. People are still reducing their deposits and investment will small banks in USA and all over the world.
Chinese economic growth has disappointed in April. This is the sole reason for the selloff in price of copper, zinc, and aluminum price. Short term technical breakdown added to fears of bulls.
Silver investors and silver traders are concerned over the fall in price on Thursday and Friday. Silver is trading over one hundred day moving average of $23.49. Silver has to trade over $23.49 for the next three weeks to be in a short term bullish zone. I will prefer to use all the significant price crash (if any) in silver to increase my long term investment but with a stop loss below $20.00.
People are very disappointed that gold price did not break $2100 this week. Retail trader’s sentiment continues to be very bullish for gold. This so called historical high bullish retail traders sentiment for gold will vanish if and if only price falls for the whole week.
Short term investment stop losses will be triggered if gold and silver fall this week. Copper traders, in my view are averaging out their long positions. A fall of more than $15.00 in comex copper July future will cause a massive wave of stop losses getting triggered. Let’s hope copper July futures trades over $350.00 for the next three weeks.
Official summer season in USA, UK, and Europe will begin from 29th May. There will be position squaring and rebuilding in the next two weeks before the summer begins in USA and Europe. Short term volatility will rise in precious metals, base metals and energies.
US DOLLAR INDEX TECHNICAL
- 50 day moving average: 102.25
- 100 day moving average: 102.75.
- US dollar Index has to trade over 102.25-102.75 zone for the next three weeks to continue its Fridays bullish trend and target 105.60 and 107.00.
- We all need to watch 102.25-102.75 zone.
Gold and silver will fall or consolidate if the US dollar Index rises this week. Fall in gold and silver due to rise in US dollar index will happen only after USA opens.
Physical premium in gold and silver will be dependent on the rising trend. Premiums will crash if gold moves into a bearish trend. Silver physical premiums will depend on ability/inability to trade over $24.00.
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DAILY SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
|
|||
|
CME FUTURES |
50 |
100 |
200 |
|
GOLD |
$1,978.80 |
$1,924.52 |
$1,826.98 |
|
SILVER |
$2,396.50 |
$2,349.50 |
$2,183.20 |
|
COPPER |
$397.95 |
$401.40 |
$379.50 |
|
CRUDE OIL |
$75.14 |
$76.41 |
$80.93 |
COMEX SILVER JULY 2023 (current market price $2411.70)
- Key price to watch: $2349.40 and $2427.40
- Weekly View for silver: There can be rallies to $2570.10 and more as long as silver trades over $2349.40.
- Crash or sell off will be there only if silver trades below $2349.40 to $2318.10 and $2292 and $2215.
The above silver graph tell me that silver will keep on trying to rise to 2644.40 and $2762.90 as long as silver trades over $2290.00-$2349 zone. Algo sell off will be there on a fall below fifty day moving average of $2349 but retracement and other technical offer good support around $2290.00.
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