Asian Metals Market Update For 16th October 2023

October 16, 2023

Israel and the developments causes safe haven demand

There are no major US economic data released this week. Israel, its new developments and significant change in geopolitical shift will dictate price of gold, silver, and crude oil. This is the first time in decades that gold and silver have benefitted from a heightened geopolitical risk.

Sentiment is very bearish for copper and base metals. In my view, most of the physical buyers are overall bearish in base metal price for the rest of the quarter.

If price rises this week in gold and silver, then (i) there will be a huge increase in short term hot money moving in gold and silver. (ii) Sellers of call options will take measures to hedge their risk. (iii) Technical breakout will be there. (iv) Physical demand will increase sharply in India, Asia and worldwide even if price continues to rise.

Day traders and jobbers can have a wild time as there can be very sharp zig-zag type price moves in precious metals, base metals and energies this week. One needs to look for signs of trend reversal to bearish or signs of a very sharp correction.

Do not Compare the current Israeli Crisis with the Ukraine war.

Israel war is between Jews and Palestinians. Apart from crude oil and energies, the region does not export anything significant to the world. Economic impact will be short term and limited. Only rising short term inflation will be a cause of concern and worry. Palestinians (to my knowledge) are generally followers of Islam. Islamic unity can topple any democratic nations where leaders are elected through mass vote. Global leaders are not supporting Israel in the way they should. All of them are hoping that a full scale war is averted.

Ukraine and Russia are major global suppliers of everything which the world needs, be it wheat, base metals, industrial chemicals and farm chemicals, the list is endless. Economic damage will be farm more big in the long term to global economy than Israel conflict.

(The above is not intended to plagiarise the Jews or the Palestinians. Only the common man gets churned in a war and not the war creators.)

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2023 (current market price $1932.50)

100 day MA: $1940.90
200 day MA: $1937.90.
50 day MA: $1925.40
THIS WEEK: Gold December needs to trade over $1898.60 to rise to $1985.80 and $2030.0 and $2064.20.
Crash or sell off will be there if gold December trades below initial support of $1920.50 to $1898.60 and $1880.10 and $1868.80.
Gold December will also crash in case, just in case $1985.80 is not broken 27^th October.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Chintan Karnani have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: I do not trade in CME futures or spot gold and spot silver. I do trade in India’s MCX futures.