The shift in the calendar has so far failed to produce any shift in the trend for precious metals markets. Gold and silver are extending their recent price declines here in the first few trading days of October and of the fourth quarter.
Surging long-term interest rates are weighing on bonds, stocks, real estate, and for now -- metals markets as well.
The gold price is back down to where it started this year. While disappointing to bulls, gold’s performance could have been a lot worse this year.
Given the biggest surge in bond yields seen in decades plus a rising U.S. dollar exchange rate versus foreign currencies, gold would normally be expected to fare a lot worse than break even.
Silver, though, isn’t holding up as well. The selloff of the past few weeks has brought the white metal’s performance to a year-to-date loss of roughly 8%.
These low prices are bringing bargain hunters into the bullion market. And silver is now looking deeply oversold on a technical basis with the prospect of seasonal strength potentially due to kick in.
Meanwhile, dysfunction in Washington, D.C. continues to raise the risk of national bankruptcy and the fall of the U.S. dollar as world reserve currency.
Congress just hastily passed a stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown. But the maneuver has thrown the House of Representatives into turmoil as a handful of fiscal conservatives, led by Matt Gaetz, ousted Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy.
McCarthy had given in to Democrat spending demands in order to get their votes for the stopgap scheme. This past summer, McCarthy had given in to Democrat demands that America’s debt limit be removed in order to clear the path for unlimited deficit spending.
The passage of the stopgap funding scheme last weekend was the last straw for Congressman Gaetz, who expressed frustration that has been building for years over the failure of Congress to practice any semblance of fiscal restraint in the face of a ballooning national debt.
Matt Gaetz: We are $33 trillion in debt. We are facing $2.2 trillion annual deficits. We face a de-dollarization globally that will crush Americans, working class Americans and the rapid global de-dollarization of the economy. When you look at the BRICS system, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, they're moving away from the dollar. And just in August, they added six new countries, including G20 economies in the western hemisphere and gulf monarchies. Moreover, you saw U.S. News say that the number one economic trend of 2023 is de-dollarization, and if this country's going down and if we're losing the dollar, I'm going down fighting. And I don't care if that means fighting Republicans, Democrats, the Uni-party. I don't think voting against Kevin McCarthy is chaos. I think $33 trillion in debt is chaos. I think that facing a $2.2 trillion annual deficit is chaos. I think that not passing single-subject spending bills is chaos. I think the fact that we have been governed in this country since the mid-nineties by continuing resolution and omnibus is chaos.
Because of his stance, Matt Gaetz is apparently now a pariah on Capitol Hill -- perhaps the most hated man in Washington. Even some of his colleagues who share his fundamental concerns believe his actions were misguided.
But many people outside the Beltway regard Gaetz as a hero for taking a stand and throwing a wrench into the bipartisan Big Government spending machine.
Kevin McCarthy accused Gaetz of attacking the institution of Congress based on a personal vendetta. But Congress has been beset by decades of institutional failures. And frustrations on both sides of the aisle are reaching a boiling point.
Amid the acrimonious debate leading up to last-ditch efforts to avert a government shutdown, a Democrat member of Congress decided to pull the fire alarm at the U.S. Capitol. That may be symbolic of just how bad things have gotten politically and financially in this country. Unfortunately, emergency responders will be unable to fix what politicians have broken.
The unprecedented toppling of a sitting House Speaker by members of his own party raises more questions than answers about what comes next.
There will likely be another high-stakes budget fight with a government shutdown in play. Perhaps another stopgap measure will kick the can down the road into 2024.
But the day could soon come when Washington won't be able to kick the can down the road any further.
And de-dollarization won’t just be something foreign central banks pursue out of prudence. It will be something that individuals pursue out of necessity as the dollar’s devaluation forces them into alternative assets that can retain their purchasing power over time.
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