GoldSeek Radio Nugget - David Haggith: Gold's Consolidation, Stealth Recession

David Haggith, head of The Daily Doom: www.thedailydoom.com, joins the show with gold posting a new all-time record close. We record another Saturday economic update with his insights on the FOMC meeting and outlook on the domestic economy.

- David notes jobless claims sharply increased, increasing recession fears.
- What is the Sahm Rule and how does it apply to the domestic economy?
- The Sahm Rule suggests we are in a stealth inflation.

I've been saying all along that we're in a stealth recession. Okay, fine, it's not showing up in GDP, but that's because real GDP subtracts out real inflation. But we don't know what real inflation is. The government hasn't reported real inflation for a long time, and they're sure not going to report it right now in an election year. So we've got an electioneered inflation, and therefore, we don't really know what real GDP is. So ignore that. The old rule says that when unemployment kicks up this much, then we're in a recession. We've triggered past that point, and that's a big part of what's freaking out stocks lately.

He continues:

You know the real GDP is bogus because look at everything else here. It's all pointing in the same direction—what treasuries are doing, what stocks are doing, what gold is doing, what unemployment is doing, what the ISM manufacturing reports are doing, what the global report is doing. All of it is saying recession. So the stealth recession is here, and I only call it a stealth recession because it's not going to be officially called as long as GDP isn't cooperating. And that's an electioneered number."

- The Sahm Rule is 100% accurate over a 50-year period!

In my writing, I think we're right at that level. If we click past that, then we are in a recession. Well, you can see we clicked past that, right major. And that, as I've said, is exactly where the parabolic term begins, and it just keeps going right up like that in there. This is fast, if not faster, than it came down on the other side. And this has happened every single time but one in the last 50 years, where it was off by some little amount. So this is a nearly perfect rule for the timing of a recession. 

-  Is the CPI, a key inflation figure, headed lower?
- Gold closed at a new all-time record high, is $3,000 inevitable?

If you look at that rise going up with the consolidation—well, after a rocket ride like that, how can you not have some consolidation?

Please support the show by subscribing to our Substack with Gold Juniors and Investment Opportunities:
https://goldseekradio.substack.com/