I'm going to go over some factors that could affect where gold could end up in September. A lot of this boils down to whether or not the stock market is at the start of a move into a major four-year cycle low, a pullback, or if this is just going to be a run-of-the-mill intermediate cycle pullback.
Here was our last confirmed four-year cycle low: the COVID crash. This is a good example of an extreme right-translated cycle. The previous four-year cycle low occurred in 2016, so you would generally expect the next one to occur in 2020, which it did. But what we have here is a rally out of that 2016 low that pushed very deep into that four-year cycle, rallying for a little over three and a half years. This gives very little time for the move into the four-year cycle low to complete.
Generally, you get a crash because there's not a lot of time left, so the entire move has to be compressed very quickly, and that's exactly what happened. We could be looking at the same thing here. If March of 2020 was our bottom, then we would expect the four-year cycle low to occur here in 2024. We may have to compress the entire move down into the four-year cycle low, especially since this intermediate cycle is going to be in the timing band.
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