Comex Report for 3rd August 2023

A triple whammy in the form sharp rise in US bond yield, rise in the US dollar Index and fall in US stock markets caused the selloff in gold, silver, copper and energies yesterday. Dash for cash was evident yesterday in USA session, after downgrading of US debt rating Fitch.

July US ADP numbers coming at 324,000 implies that interest rate in USA will stay at current levels for a much long term time than markets have currently factored. But a July nonfarm payrolls tomorrow coming in below 125,000 or a rise in July unemployment rate will pare all off yesterday’s losses and start another bull run.

I will prefer to take a chance and use the all crash till tomorrow (before the release of US July nonfarm payrolls at 6:00 pm Indian Time), to go long in gold, silver, copper and zinc and natural gas with a slightly higher trailing stop loss. Sometimes ADP and NFP are opposite. Who knows, tomorrow can be one such day.

World gold council says that India’s 2023 gold demand can fall to 700 MT from 774.10 MT last year. Physical gold demand is there and is good in the cash/smuggled gold market which the WGC does not cover. Further if in case physical gold price stays below Rs.59000 between 10^th October and 30^th November, then India’s official gold demand will be much over the predicted 700 MT.

In my view as long as physical gold price stays over Rs.56000 per ten grams in India, then all the crash, dips or correction by whatever name you call it should be used to invest for the short term, medium term and long term. (I am talking of physical gold and not MCX futures.). If I rephrase it, I do not see physical gold price falling below Rs.56000 per ten grams in India for the rest of the year.

Spot Gold

• Daily support: $1919.60, $1934.70
• Daily resistance: $1945.80 AND $1969.10
• Spot gold will crash it if it trades below $1934.70 after London opens to $1926.90, $1919.60 and $1911.90.
• Spot gold needs to trade over $1934.70 to be in an intraday bullish zone.
• I prefer to buy spot gold at $1916.80 stop loss $1904.80 for $1969.00.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (September 2023) 

• Key price to watch: $79.90
• Crude oil has to trade over $78.69 to rise to $83.70 and more.
• Mild sell off will be there if crude oil trades below $78.69 to $76.80 and $75.30.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of Chintan Karnani. In no event shall I have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of mine and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading.

Disclosure: I do not trade/invest in spot gold and spot silver and even in comex future.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

1. ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
2. Follow me on Twitter @chintankarnani
3. PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
4. PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
5. THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT