“The Fear Of War Achieves More Political Objectives Than An Actual War”. Right now there is a real fear of war between NATO forces and Russia in Ukraine. Only time will tell whether a real war will happen or not. USA/NATO has attacked nations to control resources. In Iraq and Libya, they controlled energy price. Afghanistan they controlled the global drug trade (heroin etc). Ukraine, they will be able to control wheat prices and natural gas prices. In Ukraine NATO does not need a regime change as a puppet government is in place. Gold will rise as long as there is a Fear of War. Gold prices will crash if there is an actual war. (unless there is a chance of a war getting converted into a nuclear war.)
It will be a technical trade in gold and silver but for the war factor. There is a lot of speculation of a surprise interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week. I do not think it will happen. Interest rate hike surprise (if any) will be used as diversionary tactic against an armed conflict in Ukraine.
Every four months to five months there is some new variant of coronavirus. The next disruptive variant of coronavirus will be there not before June/July of this year. People now are getting used to live normally with covid. Quarantine free world travel has started to open in most countries. The summer in northern hemisphere will be the best for the global travel and global tourism sector. Airlines will be operating at pre covid capacity. Crude oil demand this year and next year will be at an historical high. It is this expectation which is the cause for crude oil price nearing $100. Crude oil price over $100 will just be a number. I will not be surprised if we see crude oil price over $150 in the third quarter. Higher inflation and rising cost of living is here to stay. Gold and only physical gold is the best hedge against the plunging cost of paper money. (I have never been in favour of gold ETF. But I have advised to invest in silver ETF launched in India this year.)
There will be a big global recession after three years. The general sentiment among commodity speculators and commodity traders is that of an overall hyper bullish trend in soft commodities, industrial metals and energies. Commodity price bust will be a part and parcel of the long term bullish trend. Incremental income or salary increases will not be enough to cover real increases in cost of living. There will further increase in rich-poverty division. The number of people moving into poverty will increase sharply after three years from now. In short, the world will see a big demographic change after three years. Investment made according to future demographic change will result very good profit. Keep a close watch on long term trend changes in demographic changes and readjust your portfolio. We all need to ensure that we are not pawns of the global corporate mafia and global political mafia. Lifestyle changes and spending habits will also need a big change if we all do not want to be pawns.
THIS WEEK
- 15th February (Tuesday): US January PPI numbers.
- 16th February (Wednesday): US January Retail sale numbers.
There are other US economic data releases as well in the upcoming week. My focus is on the above two. They will be trend changing.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2022 (current market price $2362.00)
- Weekly Support: $2099.40, $2161.90, $2213.50, $2249.50, $2279.80 and $2307.50
- Weekly Resistances: $2398.60, $2424.60, $2511.90 and $2617.90
- Bullish View: Silver has to trade over $2249.40 this week to rise to $2511.90 and $2617.90.
- Silver will crash only if it does not break 2398.60 this week.
- A daily close over $2398.60 for three consecutive days will pave the way for $2570.90 and more.
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