Asian Metals Market Update: Volatility will be very high

Comex Report for 14^th March 2023

• Spot gold has to trade over $1890 today, tomorrow and Thursday to be in a short term bullish zone.
• Spot silver now has to trade over $22.30 to be in an intraday bullish zone.

Volatility will be very high as traders assess and reassess the short term impact and long term impact of the American banking crisis. Assurances will work for the short term. It is just a wait and watch for now.

• There is a dramatic re-pricing of U.S. rate expectations.
• Fed would now be thinking twice on interest rate hike cycle.
• Interbank markets have become stressed.

De-Dollarization trend will gather some pace and momentum after the current US banking crisis. Gold, silver and precious metals are the only hedge against the swift fall in the purchasing power of the greenback.

Two questions which I am asking myself

1. Will gold be able to break and trade over $2000 before or after Federal Reserve meeting?
2. I expect a sharp fall in February US inflation number. A fall in US inflation in February will increase calls for a pause in interest rate hike next week. BUT will there be a pause next week just case CPI rise in February and/or comes in above expectation.

I am confident that spot gold will be able to break and trade over $2000 before the end of march and target $2200+. IF Federal Reserve chairman remain adamant on interest rate hike stance, then there can be a correction in gold and silver.

This year’s correction is over in gold and silver. I do not expect gold to fall below $1770. I do not expect silver to fall below $19.30. So it is a buy on crash strategy for me for the rest of the year.

Storing of wealth in US banks by large, small, and tiny corporates of Asia will reduce sharply. Nations, central banks will advise their local global companies to bring some their stored assets in American banks. Banks in Dubai and Singapore will see a big increase in corporate wealth away from USA banks.

Gold will break past $2000 itself if it continues to rise after CPI. Silver will break past $24.00 if it continues to rise after CPI and till days close.

COMEX FUTURES DAILY TECHNICAL
	Gold April 23	Silver May 23	Copper May 23	Nymex Crude oil
CMP	$1,908.05	$2,178.20	$401.07	$74.03
S5	$1,818.55	$1,968.20	$383.72	$65.38
S4	$1,840.03	$2,018.60	$387.88	$67.46
S3	$1,863.30	$2,073.20	$392.40	$69.71
S2	$1,873.86	$2,097.98	$394.44	$70.73
S1	$1,886.93	$2,128.64	$396.98	$71.99
R1	$1,929.17	$2,227.76	$405.16	$76.07
R2	$1,942.24	$2,258.42	$407.70	$77.33
R3	$1,952.80	$2,283.20	$409.75	$78.36
R4	$1,976.07	$2,337.80	$414.26	$80.60
R5	$1,997.55	$2,388.20	$418.42	$82.68
Breakdown level	$1,885.68	$2,125.70	$396.73	$71.87
Breakout Level	$1,930.43	$2,230.70	$405.41	$76.19
CMP= Current price market price
ABOVE TECHNICALS ARE ONLY FOR REFERENCE

Spot Gold

• Daily support: $1869.70 and $1892.70
• Daily resistance: $1933.70
• Gold needs to trade over $1892.70 today to continue its rise and target $1933.70 and $1956.90 and $2000.10.
• Crash or sell off will be there if gold trades below $1892.70 after CPI numbers and till days close.
• A daily close over $1900 today and tomorrow will pave the way for $2000 and $2087 (by next week).

Spot Silver:

• Daily Support: $21.32
• Daily Resistance: $22.25 and $22.78
• Spot silver has to trade over $21.32 to rise to $23.76.
• Crash/sell off will be there only if silver trades $21.32 after CPI numbers.

COMEX GOLD APRIL 2023

• Key price to watch: $1913.40 and $1889.10
• Gold has to trade over 1902.50 to continue its yesterday’s rise and target $1959.60 and $1985.50.
• Mild sell off will be there if gold trades below $1902.50.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if comes gold April futures does not break 1965.70 by close of 23^rd March.

COMEX SILVER MAY 2023

• Key price to watch: $2142.00 and $2241.00
• Silver has to trade over $2142.00 to rise to 2297.00 and $2402.30
• Crash or another wave of sell off will be there if comex silver trades below $2142.00 after CPI numbers.
• Silver will rise very quickly if it trades over $2123.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (April 2023) 

• Crude oil has to trade over $70.40 on daily closing basis for the rest of the month and rise to $79.20 and $81.40.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if crude oil trades below $70.40 after the release of US weekly crude oil inventories at 8:00 pm today.

COMEX COPPER MAY 2023

• Copper has to trade over $401.00 to rise to $414.00 and $422.70.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if copper not trade over $401 after London opens.

LME COPPER SPOT (Current Market Price: $8833.00)

• Key support: $8536, $8685, and $8741
• Key resistance: $9017.00 and $9166.50
• Copper has to trade over $8741 to rise to $9120 and more.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if copper trades below $8741 after London opens and days close.

LME NICKEL SPOT (Current Market Price: $23166.00)

• Key support: $22108.00 and $22666.00
• Key resistance: $24223.00
• Nickel needs to trade over $22666 to rise to $24233 and $25200.
• Crash or sell off will be there today only if Nickel trades below $22666.

Direction of US stock markets between 9:00 pm Indian Time and 1:00 am Indian Time is the key.

Key US economic data releases till 22^nd March 2023

• 14^th March: Core CPI (February)
• 15^th March: PPI (February), Retail sale February,
• 22^nd March: FOMC (interest rate and interest rate projection.