The first event of 2021, Biden becoming the president of USA is over. Now focus will be on his economic policies and political policies. In my experience long term political policies of USA never change irrespective of who leads USA. I will be focusing more on Biden’s economic policies.
Biden reversing some of Trump’s order on first day in office and its implication
Biden has reversed Trump’s order of a travel ban from Syria, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Eritera, Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania. This order will have its long term political implications. I will be closely watching US-Iran relations and more so if Iran could be allowed to sell crude oil legally.
Biden was also directed to “consider revising vehicle fuel economic and emissions standards” to where they were under Obama.
Our View: Silver, copper, palladium and rhodium should be very bullish in the long term due to environment protection measures implemented by Biden. Crude oil will fall if Iran is allowed to export crude oil as per the original nuclear disarmament deal. Gold price short term trend and medium term trend will not be affected by Biden’s policies. De-dollarization will continue worldwide irrespective of Biden’s policies.
Coronavirus vaccination process globally has started in every nation in January. Positive impact of covid vaccination worldwide will be felt only towards the end of February when the working people start getting it.
There is a Federal Reserve meeting next week. This is followed by various January jobs numbers of USA in the first week of February, The second week of February should see huge gold demand and huge silver demand from China. I expect Chinese buying of gold/silver jewelry to beat the best of forecast. Chinese New Year is on 11th February.
One crucial factor will be a global stock market correction. Global stock market have had a virtual linear, northward trend for the past few months. Stocks have seen sharp corrections since June 2020 but never a bearish phase. There is fear that global stock markets can move into a short term bearish phase. Silver, crude oil and copper and nickel will be the worst hit if global stock market move into a short term bearish phase. There has to be at least seven successive days of lower close in global stock indices for it to move into a short term bearish phase. Keep a close watch on trend of stock indices for the next three weeks.
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2021 – current price $1872.00
- Gold needs to trade over $1848.20 to rise to $1899.10 and $1920.60.
- Trend is bullish as long as gold trades over $1848.20.
- Gold will crash only if $1900 is not broken by next week.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2021 – current price $2602.00
- Silver has to trade over $2604 today to rise to $2672, $2678 and $2840.
- There will be sellers only if silver falls below $2551.
- Overall trend for silver is bullish as long as silver trades over $2480.
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