Gold has generally seen big price moves with twelve trading session after any future close. Below table and conclusion will justify my view.
|
Comex Future |
|
|
high/low price in 12 trading sessions after future close |
12 day range |
|
|
2015 |
date |
Closing price |
high |
low |
|
|
gold April |
31-Mar-15 |
$1,183.10 |
$1,224.50 |
$1,180.50 |
$44.00 |
|
gold June |
29-May-15 |
$1,189.40 |
$1,204.70 |
$1,162.10 |
$42.60 |
|
gold Aug |
31-Jul-15 |
$1,094.90 |
$1,126.30 |
$1,080.20 |
$46.10 |
|
gold dec |
30-Nov-15 |
$1,065.80 |
$1,088.30 |
$1,045.70 |
$42.60 |
|
2016 |
|||||
|
gold Feb |
29-Jan-16 |
$1,116.50 |
$1,263.90 |
$1,115.30 |
$148.60 |
|
gold April |
31-Mar-16 |
$1,234.20 |
$1,264.70 |
$1,210.30 |
$54.40 |
|
gold June |
31-May-16 |
$1,214.80 |
$1,300.00 |
$1,208.20 |
$91.80 |
|
gold Aug |
29-Jul-16 |
$1,349.00 |
$1,374.20 |
$1,335.30 |
$38.90 |
|
gold Dec |
30-Nov-16 |
$1,170.80 |
$1,190.20 |
$1,124.30 |
$65.90 |
|
2017 |
|||||
|
gold Feb |
31-Jan-17 |
$1,208.60 |
$1,246.60 |
$1,199.70 |
$46.90 |
|
gold April |
31-Mar-17 |
$1,247.30 |
$1,297.40 |
$1,243.90 |
$53.50 |
|
gold June |
31-May-17 |
$1,272.00 |
$1,298.80 |
$1,252.70 |
$46.10 |
|
gold Aug |
31-Jul-17 |
$1,266.60 |
$1,298.10 |
$1,253.90 |
$44.20 |
|
gold Dec |
30-Nov-17 |
$1,273.20 |
$1,292.50 |
$1,238.30 |
$54.20 |
|
|
|
|
high/low price in 12 trading sessions after future close |
12 day range |
|
|
Comex Future |
date |
Closing price |
high |
low |
|
|
2018 |
|||||
|
gold Feb |
31-Jan-18 |
$1,339.00 |
$1,364.40 |
$1,309.00 |
$55.40 |
|
gold April |
29-Mar-18 |
$1,322.80 |
$1,369.40 |
$1,322.60 |
$46.80 |
|
gold June |
31-May-18 |
$1,300.10 |
$1,374.20 |
$1,124.30 |
$249.90 |
|
gold Aug |
31-Jul-18 |
$1,223.70 |
$1,226.00 |
$1,167.10 |
$58.90 |
|
gold Dec |
30-Nov-18 |
$1,220.20 |
$1,256.60 |
$1,226.60 |
$30.00 |
|
2019 |
|||||
|
gold Feb |
31-Jan-19 |
$1,319.70 |
$1,345.00 |
$1,304.70 |
$40.30 |
|
gold April |
29-Mar-19 |
$1,293.00 |
$1,314.70 |
$1,273.00 |
$41.70 |
|
gold June |
31-May-19 |
$1,305.80 |
$1,362.20 |
$1,310.90 |
$51.30 |
|
gold Aug |
31-Jul-19 |
$1,426.10 |
$1,546.10 |
$1,412.10 |
$134.00 |
|
gold Dec |
29-Nov-19 |
$1,465.60 |
$1,491.60 |
$1,459.90 |
$31.70 |
|
2020 |
|||||
|
gold Feb |
31-Jan-20 |
$1,582.90 |
$1,615.90 |
$1,551.10 |
$64.80 |
|
gold April |
31-Mar-20 |
$1,583.40 |
$1,788.80 |
$1,576.00 |
$212.80 |
|
gold June |
29-May-20 |
$1,736.90 |
$1,761.00 |
$1,671.70 |
$89.30 |
|
gold Aug |
31-Jul-20 |
$1,962.80 |
$2,089.20 |
$1,874.20 |
$215.00 |
|
gold Dec |
30-Nov-20 |
$1,775.70 |
$1,879.80 |
$1,778.40 |
$101.40 |
|
2021 |
|||||
|
gold Feb |
29-Jan-21 |
$1,847.30 |
$1,876.00 |
$1,767.90 |
$108.10 |
|
gold April |
31-Mar-21 |
$1,713.80 |
$1,784.70 |
$1,706.40 |
$78.30 |
|
gold June |
28-May-21 |
$1,902.50 |
$1,919.20 |
$1,804.40 |
$114.80 |
### The above prices are for comex gold futures
Why the twelve trading sessions is very important after any future close
- Gold price has always fallen once below the future closing price. In 2021 comex gold February closed at $1847.30. In the next twelve trading sessions after comex gold February future close gold price fell to $1767.90. This has been witnessed in almost every time since 2015.
- Average trading range has been over $80.00 since 2016 within twelve trading sessions after any comex gold future close.
- Right now comex gold august future closed at $1812.60 (on 30th July 2021). Thereafter comex gold December future fell to $1675.90. Historical trend suggest that gold price has a tendency to fall below the closing price of previous future (within the next twelve trading sessions).
- The reason for high volatility in gold futures (in twelve trading sessions after previous future close) is that release of various US jobs numbers and its subsequent impact on interest rate cycle. Traders also start taking for subsequent FOMC meet within twelve trading sessions after any comex gold future expiry.
One should trade very carefully within twelve trading sessions after any comex gold future expiry. Historically big price moves are always there within the twelve trading sessions after any comex gold future close. There is big money to be made if you can adapt to the volatility.
Right now world focus in taper between September and December. An extremely high US July CPI and July PPI numbers can wash away the bearish bets on gold and silver. I will not believe an iota of worlds by central bank chiefs in the upcoming Jacksonhole conference. Everything is being said and done to manipulate every asset class (even crypto currencies).
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2021 – current price $1733.30
- Key support is at $1715.50.
- Key resistance: $1748.80
- Gold needs to trade over $1715.50 today to rise to $1755.30 and $1777.80.
- Gold will crash if it trades below $1715.50 after the release of US July consumer price index numbers.
If you read the internet and social media bearish view between $1550 and $1500 are being given. Long term investors need not worry even after reading such views. If gold and silver crash after the release of US July CPI and PPI numbers and trade below $1700 for a few consecutive trading days, then $1636 and $1576 can be possible. A gold price around $1550 (if any) will be a one off best investing opportunity in gold for decades to come. My clients are investing in physical gold and physical silver at current price. I have even asked clients to invest in gold ETF in India but in small amounts (not aggressively).
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