There is massive speculation of gold custom duty in India in the annual Union Budget on the 1st of February. I personally do not see it happening. But in case it happens then the gold price will rise to $2000 in the short term. Indians will buy physical gold like a freebie. There are three keys days in the next two weeks. 27th January (next day after FOMC meet). 1st February, India’s annual Union Budget. 4th February, US January nonfarm payrolls.
Gold has to trade over $1810-$1820 zone for the next two weeks to be in a short-term bullish zone and target $1916 and more. In case gold manages to trade over $1855 on or after 27th January and till 9th February then chances of $1966 and $2032 will be very high before the end of February.
Sometimes traders react very late after any major news or event. We need to look at technical trends, momentum, and retail traders’ sentiment after three trading days of any major news or event. NFP (January) is on 4th February. The third trading session from 4th February equals 9th February. The trend of all precious metals, industrial metals, and energies on or after 9th February will continue till 15th March.
Ukraine situation (on the weekend) is going from bad to worse. The key thing to watch is how Russia responds to trade sanctions and global alienation. Russia is a major arms supplier to almost every Asian nation. Even Saudi Arabia has been recently buying large amounts of Russian arms. The sole exception is Indonesia which has canceled a purchase of planned Russian fighter jets over fears of USA imposed trade sanctions. In my view, a trade sanction imposed on Russia will not be as severe as Iran or North Korea. NATO troops and fighter jets will get their pants down in case there is an armed conflict with Russia. Gold is a buy-on crashes partly due to Ukraine. US and UK will use war as a diversionary tactic to increase their falling approval ratings. Biden and Boris Johnson are both facing continuously falling approval ratings in their nations.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2021 (current market price $2419.30)
- Weekly Support: $2081.20, $2180.70, $2242.20, $2338.90, $2390.10
- Weekly Resistances: $2480.10, $2502.30, $2563.20, $2612.90 and $2790.20.
- Bullish View: Silver should rise to $2612.90 this week as long as it trades over $2308.20.
- There will be a technical breakout if silver breaks and trades over $2502.30 this week to $2612.90.
- Bearish trend will be there if silver does not break $2502.30 this week.
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