Asian Metals Market Update: Big jobs numbers, inflation data in coming weeks

• Spot gold faces key resistance at $1868.20 with $1842.70 as immediate resistance.

Traders will prefer to go long for the weekend in gold, silver, and copper IF price trade at current price. Fear of a sharp correction is still there in the mind of day traders and short term traders. Only firm price will pave the way for bullish sentiment away from fear.

Next two weeks are the big February job numbers, inflation and pre–March FOMC position squaring and rebuilding. There is no common consensus as to which way inflation will move. Federal Reserve and all central banks sole aim to control inflation. They are happy with slower growth to control inflation.  Bets are places both ways. Net Open positions in option trades (in gold, silver, copper and US dollar index) will see a big jump with passing of each day till 21^st March.

Next week is the colorful festival of “Holi” in India. Trading volumes in India will decrease till Thursday/9^th March. Physical demand in India will also see a big drop till 9^th March. Only large importers of gold and silver will use the price drop (if any) to add to inventories.

There will be a short covering rally if price rises between London AM Fix and London PM Fix.

Spot Gold

• 50 day MA: $1842.70
• 100 day MA: $1800.50.
• Daily support: $1810.30 and $1824.90
• Daily resistance: $1849.60 and $1864.10
• Gold has to trade over $1824.90 to rise to $1849 and $1864. .
• Crash or sell off will be there only if gold trades below $1824.90 after London opens.
• Key support till next week is around $1810.00.

Spot Silver:

• 100 day MA: $22.11
• 200 day MA: $20.97
• 200 week MA: $21.47
• 50 week MA: $21.47
• Daily Support: $20.58
• Daily Resistance: $21.47
• A daily close over $21.47 is needed in spot silver for five consecutive days to target $25.00. Simple mathematics.
• Overall silver has to trade over $19.70-$20.10 zone in March month to be in a medium term bullish zone.
• TODAY silver will rise very quickly if it trades over $21.00 after London opens.
• Intraday sell will be there only below $20.60.

COMEX GOLD APRIL 2023

• Key support: 1819.50
• Gold has to trade over $1827.00 to rise to $1861.30 and $1882.00.
• Mild sell off will be there if gold trades below $1827.00.
• Gold will rise very quickly if it trades over $1850.00.

COMEX SILVER MAY 2023

• Silver has to trade over $2069 to rise to $2170 and $2213.
• Silver crash only if it trades below $2069.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (April 2023) 

• Crude oil has to trade over $76.00 to rise to $81.10.
• Sellers will be there if crude oil trades below $76.00.

COMEX COPPER MAY 2023

• Support zone: $403.50
• Copper has to trade over $403.50 to rise to $419.10.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if copper trades below $403.40.

LME COPPER SPOT (Current Market Price: $8964.50)

• Key support: $8691 and $8814
• Key resistance: $9035 and $9158
• Copper has to trade over $8691 till next week to rise back to $9158 and $9391.
• Crash will be there if copper trades below $8814 initial support.
• World is looking at new policy developments in China in the next three weeks. Chinese demand outlook for the next six months how quickly copper breaks past $9500. OR will it crash.
• Every copper traders and physical dealer is on the fence.

LME NICKEL SPOT (Previous day closing price: $24232.00)

• Key support: $23721.00
• Key resistance: $24768.00 and $25500
• Bearish sentiment is there in Nickel.
• Nickel can fall to $23721 and $22935 as long as it trades below $24424.
• Nickel needs to trade over $24424 to be in an intraday bullish zone.

Key US economic data releases till 15^th March 2023

• 3^rd March: ISM Non Manufacturing (February).
• 8^th March: JOLTS jobs opening.
• 9^th March: Challenger job cuts. (February).
• 10^th March: Nonfarm payrolls
• 13^th March: US SUMMER TIME CHANGE. ONE HOUR BEFORE FOR INDIA AND MOST ASIAN COUNTRIES.
• 14^th March: Core CPI (February)
• 15^th March: PPI (February), Retail sale February