- Spot gold needs to trade over $2001.00 to be in an intraday bullish zone.
- Spot silver has to trade over $25.16 to be in an intraday bullish zone.
Most of Europe is closed on Monday due to May day/Labour day. I will prefer to remain on the sidelines till 1st May in gold, silver, and copper. I will be looking at Friday’s trend (after March US PCE numbers) and then decide on the Pre FOMC trading strategy. There is a technical breakdown in the US dollar index. There is a technical breakdown in usd/inr, usd/idr and most Asian currencies versus the greenback. Low forward premiums is preventing exporters to hedge their exports in most Asian nations.
Argentina will start paying for Chinese imports in Chinese Yuan instead of US dollars. Trade among nations without the use of US dollar has been on a swift rise since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. Nations with very low forex reserves in US dollars are increasing the use of either of the currency (between two nations) to bypass the US dollar and also ensure forex reserves do not fall. India, UAE, Malaysia, China are among the key global nations which are increasing their global trade in non-US dollars. Please do not compare the trade de-dollarization theme with investment in US treasuries. Investment in US treasuries can rise simultaneously with a continued increase in non US dollar bilateral trade. End of the day, the inference is that gold will continue to rise as the world shuns the greenback. Pace of rise of gold should slowdown between July to November. But yeah, corrections upto $200-$250 will be followed by a $1000 rise by middle of 2024. As of now, I do not expect gold price to fall below $1800 for the rest of the year. With every major crash, the risk to return ratio will favour the medium term gold investor and long term gold investor. Risk to return ration in case gold crashes will be 1 (risk) :4 (long term return in gold).
Gold trading over $2000 is a sign that traders will use all the price crash (today and tomorrow) and go long for next week. Spot silver trading over $25.00 is a positive sign for till the FOMC meeting. Buying delivery intentions in comex silver May futures is at a historical high.
Trend after London opens is the key for copper and base metals. Base metals need to trade over current price today and tomorrow and Monday and Tuesday to prevent a technical breakdown and/or restart the short term bullish trend.
Spot Gold
- Daily support: $1972.50 and $1988.10
- Daily resistance: $2001.40 and $2017.30
- Spot Gold has to trade over $2001.40 today to rise to $2017.30 and $2032.80.
- Overall intraday trend is bullish as long as spot gold trades over $1988.10.
- Mild sell off will be there if spot gold trades below $1994.
- Spot gold will rise very quickly if it trades over $2001.40 between 12:00 noon Indian Time and 5:00 pm Indian Time.
Spot Silver:
- Daily Support: $24.46 and $24.84
- Daily Resistance: $25.59 and $26.09
- Spot silver has to trade over $24.84 to rise to $26.09 and more.
- Crash or sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $24.84 after London opens.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (June 2023)
- Crude oil has to trade over $74.10 to be in an intraday bullish zone rise to $80.80.
- Crash, sell off or technical breakdown will be there if crude oil trades below $74.10.
- There are fears of a sharp reduction in Chinese global travelling demand during the Asian summer season. Chinese travel demand and expenditure by Chinese people is one the hottest thing for crude oil demand and Eurozone nations and USA as well. A significant reduction (if any) in Chinese globe trotters can cause sharp layoffs in this sector in Eurozone and even USA.
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