The technical correction was over yesterday in precious metals and base metals in my view. The next big wave of sell-off will be there if and only if price see a sustained fall below yesterday's low. Short-term hot money clutter has been cleared in the selloff in silver, copper, crude oil, and industrial metals. It is a very good thing to have happened. Now there will be an orderly price rise in stocks, precious metals, and base metals. A long-term bullish trend is intact in precious metals and industrial metals. I am not changing my view.
US soldiers have died in a rocket attack in its base somewhere in Iraq. Iran seems to be the culprit. Rising tensions in the Middle East will prevent a significant fall in gold and silver prices.
There are no major US economic data releases this week. Recession concerns are over-exaggerated. The recession will not be there. Slowdown will be there in the USA. Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other key central banks along with hopeful revival in the Chinese economy will ensure that slower global growth can be there at the most for two consecutive quarters under the worst-case scenario.
LME COPPER CASH – cmp $8863.00
- Copper has to trade over $8625 to rise to $9085.00, $9161.00 and $9315.00.
- Crash or sell off will be there if and only if copper trades below $8625.00 for the rest of the August month.
COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2024 - CMP $399.80
- Copper September needs to trade over $388.90 today and tomorrow to rise to $414.50 and more.
- Crash or sell off will be there if copper trades below $388.90 today and tomorrow.
If global stock markets fall for the rest of the week and/or there are bear market rallies in global stock markets, then copper and base metals will see another wave of sell off. I expect a direct correlation between industrial metal price trend and US stock futures for the rest of August month.
Disclaimer
- The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
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Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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