Spot Gold will break free from $2280-$2400 trading range and form a new range. This can happen in the next seven days. Why? US June jobs (NFP) numbers and election results in France and the UK should break the range trade in gold.
Trading volumes will not be thin due to the US Independence Day holiday tomorrow. Price rise/fall will be accompanied by an equally big rise in trading volumes. Trend change (if any) will be sustainable. Do not think that it is due lack of trading volumes.
There are buyers on dips in silver, copper, aluminum, and all base metals. A sustained fall is needed in the USA session (after 6:00 pm Indian Time and till days close) for buy-stop losses to be triggered. I do not expect a massive short selling or increase in net short positions in copper and base metals unless US stock markets are in a downtrend and/or there is a sustained, sharp spike up in US bond yields.
Friday’s US June nonfarm payrolls has to come in on the highest side of expectation along with a fall in the unemployment rate for a crash in gold and silver. If not, it will be a technical trade. UK and France election result uncertainty over the weekend will prevent traders from going short on the weekend, even if there are valid reasons. Short selling can there next week if and only if key technical resistances are not broken next week.
Spot Gold -- current market price $2332.10
- 7 DAY VIEW: Spot gold needs to trade over $2307.30 on daily closing basis to rise to $2376.30 and $2405.30.
- Crash or sell off will be there if there a daily close below $2307.30 for three consecutive trading sessions.
- Spot gold will also crash if it does not break and trade over $2354.10 in the next seven days.
Disclaimer
- The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
- The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
- I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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