A technical breakout rally will be there if gold, silver, copper, and base metals rise today. London traders will be forced to cover their short positions if price rises today.
Gold and silver rose last week and yesterday due to lack of major US economic data releases. There was a delinking from rising bond yields and rising US dollar index. The real test for continuance of bullish trend will start from today and continue till FOMC on 20th September.
US economic data releases and trend (of all asset classes) thereafter will cause rearrangement of short-term investment portfolio. For me the short-term investment period is till the first week of November. We should not think of trend of precious metals and base metals beyond the first week November. I will prefer to use a buy on significant crash in gold and copper to invest for the first week of November. Silver, cautious optimism as spot silver has yet to see a sustained rise over $25.00.
Day traders and jobbers remain on the sidelines. A sharp fall in US August unemployment rate (3.30% and below) is needed on Friday/1st September to crash gold, silver and copper if not then sharp price fall will just be a correction and nothing else.
Developments in China will impact the short term trend of copper and base metals. Additional stimulus and other measures to jack up Chinese retail demand can be announced anytime in the coming weeks. Base metal prices can see big zig-zag price moves in the next six weeks.
Spot Gold
- Daily support: $1897.70 and $1911.30 and $1917.20
- Daily resistance: $1930.60 and $1957.60
- Spot gold has to trade over $1923.90 to be in an intraday bullish zone rise to $1957.80 and more
- Anything can happen zone is between $1917-$1923 zone.
- Crash or sell off will be there if spot gold trades below $1917.20 after both London AM Fix and both PM Fix.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of Chintan Karnani. In no event shall I have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: I do not trade in spot gold, spot silver and any instrument traded in CME.
Notes to the above report
All views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
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Please note: holds means holds on daily closing basis.
Please use appropriate stop losses on intra day trades to limit losses.
The time given in the report is the time of completion of report.
All prices/quotes in this report are in us dollar unless otherwise specified.
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