Asian Metals Market Update for 23rd July 2024

July 23, 2024

Volatility will be very high due to short term investment bets on who will be the next President in the USA. The real challenge will be getting right the pace of rise and the pace of fall on an intraday basis, weekly basis and monthly basis. Last week, I was expecting a smooth bullish trend in gold and silver, and copper to rise from the bottom. Everything changed on Trump news and cyber news and Biden opting not to be in the fray for re-election. In the beginning of last week, I was not expecting a selloff in precious metals. What saved me was the advanced idea of technical breakdown price point.

Long-term investors and medium-term investors, do not worry an iota for gold, silver, and copper. Buy on dips mentality is still evident in gold and silver. Short selling is done only by intraday traders.

BUT short term investment stop losses will be triggered if a falling trend is there today, tomorrow, and Thursday. A highly speculative market is there. Realignment in all asset classes is there every few minutes. Once the focus shifts to US economic data releases from Thursday (till 2^nd August July nonfarm payrolls), intraday volatility will reduce and prices will move in a trend in precious metals and base metals and energies.

The pace of de-dollarization will increase in the world after last Friday’s global software breakdown. World runs of Microsoft and large US tech companies. Nations and companies will start taking baby steps to reduce dependence on Microsoft and other related technologies. The implications of the increase in the speed of de-dollarization will be huge.

SPOT GOLD – (Current market price $2397.20)

TODAY VIEW: Spot gold has to trade over $2381.70 today to be in a bullish zone and rise back to $2423.90 and $2445.70 and more.
Crash or sell off will be there if spot gold does not break immediate resistance of $2412.60 by Thursday close to $2369.20 and $2359.50 and more.
Fifty day simple moving average around $2359.50 is now the key short term support.

The general perception is that Donald Trump if elected will be bullish for US economy and US jobs creation. He will resort to unthinkable forms of protectionist policies to ensure everything is manufactured in USA. (away from China, Taiwan and other nations.). Global free trade will reduce significantly under Trump. The pace of rise of gold will be much more than this year if Trump is reelected as president of USA. However a democratic president in USA will imply gold price blast off to sun as soon as a democrat is named as elected American president.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT