Christmas and New Year greetings to everyone.
At the end of the day everything depends on economy and economic outlook. Interest rate trends and all other factors depend on economy and economic outlook.
Coronavirus vaccine side effects can be a big issue in 2021. In my view covid vaccine negative effects (in different age groups and people with different comorbidities) will be known only after six months and more from the date of last dosage. I am looking at July 2021 and onwards for negative impact of covid vaccine. Nations and all concerned are just trying to play with statistical numbers like falling and rising trend of coronavirus etc.
A medicine for coronavirus can result in gold price moving into a medium term bearish zone. Strangely world is just focused on short cut vaccine for coronavirus.
Key periods in 2021 which can be a big trend changer
8th January 2021 to 22nd January 2021 (US December nonfarm payrolls and Biden takes over as president of USA).
1st March 2021 to 9th March 2021 (two weeks after Chinese New Year and US February jobs numbers).
15th June 2021 to 20th June 2021 (Federal Reserve meeting in June historically has been a trend change for global financial markets).
All metals and energies can either change the trend or see some really big one way price moves in the above period or just after the above periods. I am not thinking anything beyond June 2021 at the moment.
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2021 FUTURE/near term future
Current Market Price: $1901.80
- Supports: $1401.20, $1494.50, $1569.70. $1645.10 and $1738.20
- Resistances: $2039.50, $2132.70, $2208.10 and $2527.20
- Gold needs to trade over $1616.90 in 2021 to rise to $2527.20.
- 2020 average daily closing price is at $1775.35. Gold will move into short term bearish phase and may even test $1616.90 if gold trades below $1775.30 for two consecutive weeks.
- Long term trend is still bullish. Medium term also gold is bullish. Cautious optimism in the short term.
- Hot money or casino traders will come in only if gold price shows a sustained rise over $2000.
- Investing mantra for 2021: Buy far dated call options on sharp dips. In the short term gold will never be a safe haven. Short term traders and day traders in 2021 need to trade and invest very carefully.
- Do not invest in gold if you are not prepared for fifteen percent price fall.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2021 FUTURE/near term future
Current Market Price: $2685.50
- Supports: $1207.10, $1473.90, $1689.90, $1905.20 and $2172.10
- Resistances: $3034.50, $3301.40, $3517.10, $3732.10 and $4430.30
- Two hundred day moving average is at $2253.20.
- Average daily closing price in 2021 (as on 18th December close): $2051.60.
- Silver is bullish in 2021 as long as it trades over $2051.60 with 3517 and $4430 as price target.
- Thirty percent one way price fall or price swings will be part of the long term bullish trend. Silver is not for low risk taking investors and traders in 2021.
- Silver will move into a bearish trend in 2021 if (a) Silver does not break $2923.70 in the first quarter (b) Silver trades below $2253.20, two hundred day moving average for a few days.
- Investment advise: Invest. One can also buy far dated call options in silver.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL near term future
Current Market Price: $47.69
- Supports: $26.50, $35.10
- Resistances: $63.10 and $78.70
- Crude oil can rise to $78.70 next year as long as it trades over $35.10.
- Correction upto $35.10 will be a part of the bullish trend.
- Crude oil will move into a medium term bearish trend only if there are some serious weak demand fundamentals due to whatever reason.
- Investment advise: Trend of crude oil can change every two months. Overall crude oil is a buy on sharp dips.
2021 can be a difficult time for short term metals traders and short term energy traders. One needs to invest sensibly and not put all eggs one basket.
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