Asian Metals Market Update for 11th August 2023

What’s next for gold and silver after US July CPI

Traders and markets are divided on September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index (CPI) gained 0.2% in July, lifting the annual rate to 3.2% from 3% the month before. Annual consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The Fed has a 2% inflation target.

Except for energy price, inflation in the month of August should fall. I still expect a pause in interest rate by the Federal Reserve in its meeting on 20^th September. The next Federal Reserve meeting is forty days away. Jackson hole meeting of central bankers will see a middle of road on interest rate stance with everything dependent on inflation.

I will use all the crash in gold and silver till 20^th September to invest for Diwali. (14^th November). But as a day trader and jobbers, I will prefer to remain on the sidelines. I will looking for sell first buy later strategies as well.

Spot gold has a key long term support around $1840. It needs to trade over $1844 till end January 2023 to be in a bullish zone. Spot silver has to trade over $21.00 till end January to be in a long term bullish zone and try to break past $27.00 major long term resistance. As of now with every major crash, the risk to return is in favour of the investor. But any significant rise and sustained rise in the US dollar index will nullify my bullish view and change to bearish for short term and medium term.

Spot Gold

• Daily support: $1885.00 and $1898.90, $1906.00
• Daily resistance: $1919.00 and $1926.00 and $1950.00
• Spot gold has to trade over $1919.00 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise back to $1939.80 and $1950.00.
• There will be sellers on rise as long as spot gold trades below $1919.00.

Spot Silver:

• Daily Support: $22.10 and $22.45
• Daily Resistance: $22.98 and $23.30
• Spot silver needs to trade over $22.56 to rise to $23.30 and more.
• Mild sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $22.56.
• Crash or sell off will be there if silver September trades below $22.40 after PPI and till days close to $22.10 and $21.77 and $21.20.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of Chintan Karnani. In no event shall I have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of mine and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading.

Disclosure: I do not trade/invest in spot gold and spot silver and even in comex future.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

1. ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
2. Follow me on Twitter @chintankarnani
3. PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
4. PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
5. THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
6. ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.