Asian Metals Market Update for 10th February

Gold and silver will rise and/or remain firm after Trump says that he will introduce a new 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported to the USA, on top of existing metals duties. These new tariffs will be announced today. The largest sources of U.S. steel imports are Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, followed by South Korea and Vietnam, according to government and American Iron and Steel Institute data.

Steel is an inherent part of our daily lives. Higher costs will be passed on to the consumer. Consumer durable costs will increase significantly if steel tariffs are actually imposed by Trump in totality. The replacement demand period (of consumer durable) will rise further in case this steel tariff is imposed worldwide. To me, the replacement demand period is very important for consumer durable companies.

Real estate prices, may also see a significant rise as the cost of construction rises. Regular home repair costs may also rise quite a bit. The net impact (due to Trump's imposed steel tariff (if any) will be

• Another big increase in retail debt worldwide.
• Reduced wasteful expenditure.
• Central bank's interest rate cut pause coming in sooner than
• Physical gold demand and physical gold premiums will continue to rise every day. The more the gold price rises, the more will be the premiums in physical gold.
• Even physical silver demand (by the common man) will see a big rise.

Net-on-net, Trump’s steel tariff, if imposed on totality for a very long period of time, will be recessionary for the US economy as well and not just for the world. Even Tesla’s electric vehicle cost will see a significant rise. BYD and other Chinese electric vehicle costs will not rise much and will negatively impact Tesla’s profitability. Elon Musk's reaction!!!!.

More and more nations will try and unite against unilateralism by the USA under President Donald Trump. Nations will converge, supplement, and complement each other resources as a hedge againstthe  USA. I see an Asian unity on economic challenges posed by Trump (despite all kinds of geopolitical differences and geopolitical hatred between some Asian neighbours.). In the long term, large US corporations will see reduced profit from Asia. Even US arms exports to Asia will reduce (except India.). USA and US economy and US companies will be the looser in the long term if unilateral trade tariff and reciprocal trade tariff war continues for the rest of the year.

Intraday traders and jobbers0020 need to remain on the sidelines today this week. It remains to be seen if US January CPI and PPI inflation create any flutter in the precious metals market.

CME GOLD APRIL 2025 – Current price $2902.30

• VIEW TILL END FEBRUARY: Gold April 2025 has to trade over $2860.00 on a daily closing basis for the rest of February to rise to $2948.60, $3043.70, $3138.00, and more.
• Crash or sell-off will be there if gold February trades below $2860.00 any day in the USA session and more so after the London Pm Fix and till days close.
• Gold April will also crash if it does not break $2948.60 by the 18^th

Disclaimer

• The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
• The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
• I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

1. ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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3. PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
4. PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
5. THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
6. ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
7. ALL NEWS IS TAKEN  FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
8. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE